When can the mask be taken off completely?

“The probability that the Covid-19 outbreak could disappear in the next few years or longer is not high.”

Article | wan Lin si

Edit | Zhao Jiaran

Review | Luo Kun

Recently, there have been sporadic or concentrated outbreaks in many places. With the arrival of the “return wave” during the Spring Festival, there has been an increase in the flow of people, which further increases the risk of the spread of the epidemic.

For the outbreak of hebei and other places, medical virology research institute, wuhan university, professor Yang of autumn recently in an interview with new fabric (WeChat ID: jwview) in an interview said that as long as the regional control of infection, will COVID – 19 confirmed cases with close contact with people trying to identify and control the flow to the low risk area, the outbreak under control in a week or so, will not continue to develop.
At present, the increasing cases are sporadic and under control, but whether the end of the Spring Festival needs further observation.

In his opinion, only the universal vaccination can achieve the herd immunity, the immune barrier can be stronger.
Today, the vaccination coverage of the new crown vaccine is gradually expanding, but it is still necessary to maintain the habit of normal prevention and control, after all, the probability of CoviD-19 epidemic may disappear in the next few years, or even longer.

Yang Zhanqiu had been engaged in the research of new pathogenic infectious diseases.
In 2003, a new coronavirus disease — SARS (SARS) broke out all over the world. In order to control the outbreak of this disease again, Yang Zhanqiu led all the teachers and students in the laboratory to develop the SARS coronavirus vaccine, and fought on the front line of the fight against SARS.
Six years later, when the A (H1N1) flu broke out, he stood on the front lines again, and led his team to fight the virus and find antiviral drugs. His research results were included in the National Health Commission’s A (H1N1) Prevention and Control Guidelines (2010 edition).

On the eve of Wuhan’s “closing the city” in 2020, he was still leading his doctoral students in the laboratory to conduct research on the correlation between anti-influenza drugs and virus mutation, but the sudden outbreak of Covid-19 interrupted his research.
It was nearly nine months before Yang returned to his familiar laboratory to continue his research.

“Having worked with viruses for nearly half my life, novel coronavirus is something I’ve never experienced before.”
Yang Zhan Qiu in the acceptance of the new Jingwei (WeChat ID: JWVIEW) said.
Although Yang is not directly involved in the development of the new crown vaccine, he has been closely following the development of the Covid-19 epidemic and the development of the new crown vaccine.

▲ A recent photo of Yang Zhanqiu

What else did he say about the epidemic?
The following is an edited transcript of the interview with Yang Zhan-qiu:


“The Covid-19 epidemic is unlikely to end in the next few years.”

China-Singapore Longitude and Latitude: When will the epidemic end in Hebei, Heilongjiang and Jilin?

Yang Zhanqiu: No matter last year or this year, the outbreak point of Covid-19 is in winter and early spring. The low temperature in this season makes the sub-zero environment become the cold chain, which provides the environment and conditions for the survival of the virus. Moreover, the virus retains its activity for a long time, and it is easy for the virus to spread at this time.

The aggregation and movement of people causes the outbreak of the virus, which cannot be controlled, and the virus not only flows between people, but also exists in the natural environment, where the phenomenon of “person-to-person transmission” occurs.

In addition, novel coronavirus is highly infectious and the proportion of asymptomatic infection is high, which intensifies the occult transmission of the virus, and there is still the possibility of local outbreak.

Look from the official information, outbreaks of disease in China this year, is basically imported infection outbreak in local parts of the country, propagation path and the scope of cases are very clear, as long as the regional control of infection, will COVID – 19 confirmed cases with close contact with people trying to identify and control the flow to the low risk area, epidemic under control in a week or so, will not continue to develop.
At present, the cases are still increasing sporadically, and are within the control range. It needs further observation whether the cases will end before the Spring Festival.

CJW: When can people take off their masks?

Yang Zhanqiu: China has a very sophisticated prevention and control system, surveillance system and nucleic acid detection capability. It is unlikely that the Covid-19 pandemic will occur again in recent years, but this does not mean that the Covid-19 pandemic will be ended in the next two years.

China’s Covid-19 outbreak was affected by foreign outbreaks, which are spreading rapidly in many countries. Moreover, many countries are limited by vaccine production and cold-chain transportation capacity, so it will take a long time for the vaccine to be fully vaccinated.

Vaccines can stop the spread of viral infections.
The most successful example is the worldwide eradication of the smallpox virus thanks to vaccination.
I believe that with vaccination, there can be general protection.

However, only a universal vaccination can achieve herd immunity, and the immune barrier can be stronger.
Today, the vaccination coverage of the new crown vaccine is gradually expanding, but it is still necessary to maintain the habit of normal prevention and control, after all, the probability of CoviD-19 epidemic may disappear in the next few years, or even longer.

Bring data diagram


“The new crown vaccine does not need to be administered every year, and antibodies need not be tested after vaccination.”

In the new jingwei: how to know oneself to hit vaccine to have effect, how long antibody is effective, have necessary self-examination antibody?

Yang Zhanqiu: After vaccinating the new crown vaccine, there is no need to self-check the antibody.
After inoculation, the preventive effect of vaccine is affected by the characteristics of pathogen, the characteristics of vaccine and the immune status of the vaccinees.
Novel Coronavirus vaccine does not require an annual vaccination, which is required when an outbreak occurs, or when a localized epidemic occurs.

Within half a year after the completion of vaccination, the immune effect is the best period, when the antibody level is high and the immune protection ability is strong. After half a year, the antibody may gradually decline.
However, based on the characteristics of the infection of the coronavirus, I believe that the antibody against the new coronavirus can last in the human body for 2 to 4 years. For individuals, there is no need to do antibody testing during this period.

In addition, at present, colloidal gold method is mostly used for antibody detection in the market, which is relatively simple and fast. However, due to the influence of detection sensitivity and truncation threshold, grey area specimens are difficult to be defined, which is prone to “false negative” or “false positive”.
There is a lack of clear comparison between kits from various manufacturers, and standardization of the antibody testing and testing process is still a long process.


If you really want to return home for the Spring Festival, these things should pay attention to!

Zhongxin Jingwei: Recently, local governments have issued a proposal to “celebrate the Spring Festival locally”. What suggestions do you have for people who really want to return home for the Spring Festival?
What else should I pay attention to during the Spring Festival?

Yang Zhanqiu: The mobility of the population during this year’s Spring Festival travel rush will be significantly reduced. The areas with confirmed cases, no matter in high-risk or medium-risk areas, should be the focus of attention.
The winter and early spring season itself is a time of epidemic for novel coronavirus, and if infections in these areas are not controlled, it could easily lead to a nationwide Covid-19 epidemic.

I suggest that the movement of people within the outbreak area should be minimized.
People who do not have an outbreak area should take a negative certificate of 7-day nucleic acid test and travel on the wrong peak, and do a good job of protection during the whole journey.

China has high requirements for epidemic prevention during the Spring Festival travel rush. Recently, the local personnel in Daxing District of Beijing where the newly infected cases are located were screened, and the anal swab test was added on the basis of nasopharyngeal, oropharyngeal and serum tests, in order to prevent the infection of novel coronavirus from “missing the net” and reduce the probability of false negative.

However, the logistics during the Spring Festival is also increasing, and under low temperature conditions, it is necessary to be alert to the risk of imported cold-chain food and other goods being contaminated by the virus.

Due to the large number of imported cold-chain food, sampling inspection is difficult to find all potential risks. Therefore, customs quarantine information of product should be paid as much attention as possible, including inspection and quarantine certificate, nucleic acid test report, disinfection certificate, and cold-chain food traceability data.
It is an effective way to avoid infection to do a good job of disinfection and self-protection of packaging and to avoid eating raw or semi-raw seafood directly.

China-Singapore Jingwei: How to choose between public transportation, air and train?

Yang: Novel coronavirus infection depends on the presence of virus in the environment and the amount of viral load (the number of viruses in the environment).
If the neighbor is diagnosed patients, symptoms such as fever, cough, so his body is a machine “virus”, although with a mask, but there are viruses discharge from his body, plus return midway lowers his mask to eat, drink water, if the viral load too much, for others the possibility of infection is very big.

On the one hand, the immune cells in the body will phagocyte the virus. Even if a part of the virus is discharged, the amount of novel coronavirus discharged from the body is limited and the transmission ability is limited. Therefore, we do not need to worry too much about the asymptomatic infection, and what we need to prevent is the symptomatic infection.

If you return home, the fastest way to get home and contact with the least people is preferred. It is safest to minimize the chance of contact with others in a unit time and shorten the time you stay in public places.
At the same time, many infections occur not while traveling on a vehicle, but while waiting for a train or plane, where the population density increases and exposure increases, through the spread of the environment or contaminants.
According to the current prevention and control measures, the chance of being infected during the Spring Festival is not high, but personal protection must be done well.

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